Superspreading, overdispersion and their implications in the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature.

BACKGROUND: A recurrent feature of infectious diseases is the observation that different individuals show different levels of secondary transmission. This inter-individual variation in transmission potential is often quantified by the dispersion parameter k. Low values of k indicate a high degree of variability and a greater probability of superspreading events. Understanding k for COVID-19 across contexts can assist policy makers prepare for future pandemics. METHODS: A literature search following a systematic approach was carried out in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, medRxiv, bioRxiv and arXiv to identify publications containing epidemiological findings on superspreading in COVID-19. Study characteristics, epidemiological data, including estimates for k and R0, and public health recommendations were extracted from relevant records. RESULTS: The literature search yielded 28 peer-reviewed studies. The mean k estimates ranged from 0.04 to 2.97. Among the 28 studies, 93% reported mean k estimates lower than one, which is considered as marked heterogeneity in inter-individual transmission potential. Recommended control measures were specifically aimed at preventing superspreading events. The combination of forward and backward contact tracing, timely confirmation of cases, rapid case isolation, vaccination and preventive measures were suggested as important components to suppress superspreading. CONCLUSIONS: Superspreading events were a major feature in the pandemic of SARS-CoV-2. On the one hand, this made outbreaks potentially more explosive but on the other hand also more responsive to public health interventions. Going forward, understanding k is critical for tailoring public health measures to high-risk groups and settings where superspreading events occur.

Evaluating infection risks and importance of hand hygiene during the household laundry process using a quantitative microbial risk assessment approach.

BACKGROUND: Contaminated laundry contributes to infectious disease spread in residential and home health care settings. The objectives were to (1) evaluate pathogen transmission risks for individuals doing laundry, and (2) compare hand hygiene timing to reduce risks. METHODS: A quantitative microbial risk assessment using experimental data from a laundry washing effectiveness study was applied to estimate infection risks from SARS-CoV-2, rotavirus, norovirus, nontyphoidal Salmonella, and Escherichia coli in 4 laundry scenarios: 1 baseline scenario (no hand hygiene event) and 3 hand hygiene scenarios (scenario 1: after moving dirty clothes to the washing machine, scenario 2: after moving washed clothes to the dryer, and scenario 3: hand hygiene events following scenario 1 and 2). RESULTS: The average infection risks for the baseline scenario were all greater than 2 common risk thresholds (1.0×10-6and 1.0×10-4). For all organisms, scenario 1 yielded greater risk reductions (39.95%-99.86%) than scenario 2 (1.35%-55.25%). Scenario 3 further reduced risk, achieving 1.0×10-6(SARS-CoV-2) and 1.0×10-4risk thresholds (norovirus and E. coli). CONCLUSIONS: The modeled results suggest individuals should reduce hand-to-facial orifice (eyes, nose, and mouth) contacts and conduct proper hand hygiene when handling contaminated garments. More empirical data are needed to confirm the estimated risks. DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT: The data and code that support the findings of this study can be retrieved via a Creative Commons Zero v1.0 Universal license in GitHub at https://github.com/yhjung1231/Laundry-QMRAproject-2022.git DOI: http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7122065.

Modeling COVID-19 infection dynamics and mitigation strategies for in-person K-6 instruction.

Background: U.S. school closures due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic led to extended periods of remote learning and social and economic impact on families. Uncertainty about virus dynamics made it difficult for school districts to develop mitigation plans that all stakeholders consider to be safe. Methods: We developed an agent-based model of infection dynamics and preventive mitigation designed as a conceptual tool to give school districts basic insights into their options, and to provide optimal flexibility and computational ease as COVID-19 science rapidly evolved early in the pandemic. Elements included distancing, health behaviors, surveillance and symptomatic testing, daily symptom and exposure screening, quarantine policies, and vaccination. Model elements were designed to be updated as the pandemic and scientific knowledge evolve. An online interface enables school districts and their implementation partners to explore the effects of interventions on outcomes of interest to states and localities, under a variety of plausible epidemiological and policy assumptions. Results: The model shows infection dynamics that school districts should consider. For example, under default assumptions, secondary infection rates and school attendance are substantially affected by surveillance testing protocols, vaccination rates, class sizes, and effectiveness of safety education. Conclusions: Our model helps policymakers consider how mitigation options and the dynamics of school infection risks affect outcomes of interest. The model was designed in a period of considerable uncertainty and rapidly evolving science. It had practical use early in the pandemic to surface dynamics for school districts and to enable manipulation of parameters as well as rapid update in response to changes in epidemiological conditions and scientific information about COVID-19 transmission dynamics, testing and vaccination resources, and reliability of mitigation strategies.

The Potential Role of an Adjunctive Real-Time Locating System in Preventing Secondary Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a Hospital Environment: Retrospective Case-Control Study.

BACKGROUND: There has been an increasing demand for new technologies regarding infection control in hospital settings to reduce the burden of contact tracing. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to compare the validity of a real-time locating system (RTLS) with that of the conventional contact tracing method for identifying high-risk contact cases associated with the secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2. METHODS: A retrospective case-control study involving in-hospital contact cases of confirmed COVID-19 patients, who were diagnosed from January 23 to March 25, 2022, was conducted at a university hospital in South Korea. Contact cases were identified using either the conventional method or the RTLS. The primary endpoint of this study was secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among contact cases. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis comparing test positive and versus negative contact cases were performed. RESULTS: Overall, 509 and 653 cases were confirmed by the conventional method and the RTLS, respectively. Only 74 contact cases were identified by both methods, which could be attributed to the limitations of each method. Sensitivity was higher for the RTLS tracing method (653/1088, 60.0%) than the conventional tracing method (509/1088, 46.8%) considering all contact cases identified by both methods. The secondary transmission rate in the RTLS model was 8.1%, while that in the conventional model was 5.3%. The multivariable logistic regression model revealed that the RTLS was more capable of detecting secondary transmission than the conventional method (adjusted odds ratio 6.15, 95% CI 1.92-28.69; P=.007). CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that the RTLS is beneficial when used as an adjunctive approach to the conventional method for contact tracing associated with secondary transmission. However, the RTLS cannot completely replace traditional contact tracing.

Behaviors Associated With Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in California and Colorado, January 2021-April 2021.

Introduction: Mitigation behaviors are key to preventing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We identified the behaviors associated with secondary transmission from confirmed SARS-CoV-2 primary cases to household contacts and described the characteristics associated with reporting these behaviors. Methods: Households with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections were recruited in California and Colorado from January to April 2021. Self-reported behaviors and demographics were collected through interviews. We investigated behaviors associated with transmission and individual and household characteristics associated with behaviors using univariable and multivariable logistic regression with generalized estimating equations to account for household clustering. Results: Among household contacts of primary cases, 43.3% (133 of 307) became infected with SARS-CoV-2. When an adjusted analysis was conducted, household contacts who slept in the same bedroom with the primary case (AOR=2.19; 95% CI=1.25, 3.84) and ate food prepared by the primary case (AOR=1.98; 95% CI=1.02, 3.87) had increased odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Household contacts in homes ≤2,000 square feet had increased odds of sleeping in the same bedroom as the primary case compared with those in homes >2,000 square feet (AOR=3.97; 95% CI=1.73, 9.10). Parents, siblings, and other relationships (extended family, friends, or roommates) of the primary case had decreased odds of eating food prepared by the primary case compared with partners. Conclusions: Sleeping in the same bedroom as the primary case and eating food prepared by the primary case were associated with secondary transmission. Household dimension and relationship to the primary case were associated with these behaviors. Our findings encourage innovative means to promote adherence to mitigation measures that reduce household transmission.

SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Dynamics in Households With Children, Los Angeles, California.

Objectives: Studies of household transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) focused on households with children are limited. We investigated household secondary attack rate (SAR), transmission dynamics, and contributing factors in households with children. Materials and Methods: In this prospective case-ascertained study in Los Angeles County, California, all households members were enrolled if ≥1 member tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Nasopharyngeal PCRs, serology, and symptom data were obtained over multiple visits. Results: A total of 489 individuals in 105 households were enrolled from June to December 2020. The majority (77.3%) reported a household annual income of <$50,000, and most (92.9%) were of Hispanic/Latinx ethnicity. Children <18 years old accounted for 46.9% index cases, of whom 45.3% were asymptomatic. Household index cases were predominantly children during low community transmission and adults during the high community transmission period (χ2 = 7.647, p = 0.0036. The mean household SAR was 77.0% (95% CI: 69.4-84.6%). Child and adult index cases both efficiently transmitted SARS-CoV-2 within households [81.9%, (95% CI: 72.1-91.9%) vs. 72.4% (95% CI: 59.8-85.1%), p = 0.23]. Household income and pets were significantly associated with higher SAR in the multivariable analysis of household factors (p = 0.0013 and 0.004, respectively). Conclusions: The SAR in households with children in an urban setting with a large ethnic minority population is much higher than previously described. Children play important roles as index cases. SAR was disproportionately impacted by household income. Vaccination and public health efforts need special focus on children and vulnerable communities to help mitigate SARS-CoV-2 spread.

SARS-CoV-2 Infections and Incidence at a North Carolina Pre-Kindergarten-12 School During In-Person Education: August 2020 to January 2021.

BACKGROUND: School closures were initially believed to mitigate SARS-CoV-2, but instead may have had a limited role in reducing community SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We describe a single school's experience with in-person education during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: From August 17, 2020 through January 23, 2021, we conducted a prospective study at a private pre-kindergarten through 12th grade (PreK-12) school in North Carolina. The school employed numerous SARS-CoV-2 mitigation measures, including mandatory masking and physical distancing without mandated laboratory screening tests. We analyzed de-identified contact tracing data collected by the school. RESULTS: Seventy-five primary cases were reported among the 2110 students, faculty, and staff during the study period. Twenty-one (28%) of the primary cases were on-campus during their infectious periods; however, no classroom close-contacts subsequently reported a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result. Two secondary cases likely resulted from unmasked exposure at a school athletic event. There was no correlation between community incidence and secondary transmission in the school. CONCLUSIONS: Despite high rates of SARS-CoV-2 community incidence during the study period, routine mitigation practices including daily health screenings, mandatory face coverings, and efficient contact tracing contributed to minimal secondary SARS-CoV-2 transmission within an urban PreK-12 school. The limited school-associated transmission occurred when masks were not used during athletic events.

Secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during the first two waves in Japan: Demographic characteristics and overdispersion.

OBJECTIVES: Super-spreading events caused by overdispersed secondary transmission are crucial in the transmission of COVID-19. However, the exact level of overdispersion, demographics, and other factors associated with secondary transmission remain elusive. In this study, we aimed to elucidate the frequency and patterns of secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Japan. METHODS: We analyzed 16,471 cases between January 2020 and August 2020. We generated the number of secondary cases distribution and estimated the dispersion parameter (k) by fitting the negative binomial distribution in each phase. The frequencies of the secondary transmission were compared by demographic and clinical characteristics, calculating the odds ratio using logistic regression models. RESULTS: We observed that 76.7% of the primary cases did not generate secondary cases with an estimated dispersion parameter k of 0.23. The demographic patterns of primary-secondary cases differed between phases, with 20-69 years being the predominant age group. There were higher proportions of secondary transmissions among older individuals, symptomatic patients, and patients with 2 days or more between onset and confirmation. CONCLUSIONS: The study showed the estimation of the frequency of secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the characteristics of people who generated the secondary transmission.

Age dependence of the natural history of infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2): an analysis of Diamond Princess data.

BACKGROUND: Following an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the cruise ship Diamond Princess, passengers and crew were followed-up to determine prognosis. This study examined the epidemiological determinants of COVID-19 natural history using these follow-up data. METHODS: Infection status, diagnosis, clinical symptoms and prognosis were analysed for all passengers and crew members on the Diamond Princess. In addition, the risk of infection associated with exposure within cabin rooms, as well as the risks of various clinical manifestations of disease, along with their epidemiological determinants, were analysed. RESULTS: The adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of infection for individuals tested by polymerase chain reaction on or after 12 February 2020 compared with individuals tested before this date was 0.53 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.39-0.72], reflecting decreased transmission during onboard quarantine. Among infected individuals, older age was associated with elevated odds of symptomatic illness (aOR 1.01, 95% CI 1.00-1.02), severe disease (aOR 1.08, 95% CI 1.05-1.12) and death (aOR 1.12, 95% CI 1.05-1.21). CONCLUSIONS: Severe COVID-19 disease, death and symptomatic illness were more frequent among older individuals on the Diamond Princess. Older elderly cases (age ≥80 years) had the highest risks of severe disease and death. Inter-room transmission was prevented successfully by the onboard quarantine.

Roles of Children and Adolescents in COVID-19 Transmission in the Community: A Retrospective Analysis of Nationwide Data in Japan.

Background: Roles of children and adolescents in spreading coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the community is not fully understood. Methods: We analyzed the data of 7,758 children and adolescents with COVID-19 and characteristics of secondary transmission generated by these cases using case information published by local governments. Ratio of pediatric and adolescent cases generating secondary transmission was calculated for various social settings. Results: The incidence of COVID-19 was 24.8 cases per 105 population aged between 0 and 9 years, and 59.2 among those aged between 10 and 19 years, which was lower than that among individuals of all age groups (79.6 per 105 population) between January 15 and October 31, 2020. The proportion of cases generating secondary cases was 8.3% among infants and young children in nursery schools and kindergartens, 16% among children and adolescents attending primary schools, 34% among those attending junior high schools, 43% among those attending high schools, 31% among those attending professional training colleges, and 24% in those attending universities. Households were the most common setting for secondary transmission. Conclusion: The risk of generating secondary cases might be limited among pediatric and adolescent cases with COVID-19, especially in settings outside households. Effectiveness of traditional mitigation measures (e.g., school closures) to suppress COVID-19 transmissions should be carefully evaluated.

COVID-19 and School: To Open or Not to Open, That Is the Question. The First Review on Current Knowledge.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented closure of schools in terms of duration. The option of school closure, SARS-CoV-2 initially being poorly known, was influenced by the epidemiological aspects of the influenza virus. However, school closure is still under debate and seems unsupported by sure evidence of efficacy in the COVID-19 era. The aim of our narrative review is to discuss the available literature on SARS-CoV-2 spread among children and adolescents, in the school setting, trying to explain why children appear less susceptible to severe disease and less involved in viral spreading. We also tried to define the efficacy of school closure, through an overview of the effects of the choices made by the various countries, trying to identify which preventive measures could be effective for a safe reopening. Finally, we focused on the psychological aspects of such a prolonged closure for children and adolescents. SARS-CoV-2, children, COVID-19, influenza, and school were used as key words in our literature research, updated to 29 March 2021. To our knowledge, this is the first review summarizing the whole current knowledge on SARS-CoV-2 spreading among children and adolescents in the school setting, providing a worldwide overview in such a pandemic context.

Secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 through wastewater: Concerns and tactics for treatment to effectively control the pandemic.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus has spread globally and has severely impacted public health and the economy. Hand hygiene, social distancing, and the usage of personal protective equipment are considered the most vital tools in controlling the primary transmission of the virus. Converging evidence indicated the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater and its persistence over several days, which may create secondary transmission of the virus via waterborne and wastewater pathways. Although, researchers have started focusing on this mode of virus transmission, limited knowledge and societal unawareness of the transmission through wastewater may lead to significant increases in the number of positive cases. To emphasize the severe issue of virus transmission through wastewater and create societal awareness, we present a state of the art critical review on transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater and the potential remedial strategies to effectively control the viral spread and safeguard society. For low-income countries with high population densities, it is suggested to identify the virus in large scale municipal wastewater plants before following up with one-to-one testing for effective control of the secondary transmission. Ultrafiltration is an effective method for wastewater treatment and usually more than 4 logs of virus removal are achieved while safeguarding good protein permeability. Decentralized wastewater treatment facilities using solar-assisted disinfestation methods are most economical and can be effectively used in hospitals, isolation wards, and medical centers for reducing the risk of transmission from high local concentration sites, especially in tropical countries with abundant solar energy. Disinfection with chlorine, sodium hypochlorite, benzalkonium chloride, and peracetic acid have shown potential in terms of virucidal properties. Biological wastewater treatment using micro-algae will be highly effective in removal of virus and can be incorporated into membrane bio-reaction to achieve excellent virus removal rate. Though promising results have been shown by initial research for inactivation of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater using physical, chemical and biological based treatment methods, there is a pressing need for extensive investigation of COVID-19 specific disinfectants with appropriate concentrations, their environmental implications, and regular monitoring of transmission. Effective wastewater treatment methods with high virus removal capacity and low treatment costs should be selected to control the virus spread and safeguard society from this deadly virus.

Low secondary transmission rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection among contacts of construction laborers at open air environment.

INTRODUCTION: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection spreads through droplet and aerosols. Household contacts have a high risk of infection and transmission outside the home can occur at closed and open locations. We studied the transmission risk at open environment among contacts of construction laborers. METHODS: Close contacts of 18 SARS-CoV-2 infected construction laborers were assessed for symptomatic or asymptomatic infection. Contacts were classified as: a) persons at residence of index case b) persons at workplace (open and closed environment), and c) persons outside the index case residence or workplace who are traceable. Relative risk of infection among contacts at different locations and observed parameters were compared between them. RESULTS: Four hundred and ninety-six contacts were assessed. The secondary transmission rate was maximum among household contacts (n=28, 43.7%) followed by contacts at closed environment at workplace (n=44, 26%), traceable other contacts (n=8, 15.7%) and contacts at open environment at workplace (n=3, 1.4%). Relative risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection among household contacts was 30.9 (CI 9.7-98.3, p<0.001) compared to open environmental work contacts and 1.68 (CI 1.15-2.44, p=0.006) compared to closed environmental work contacts. Relative risk was 18.3 (CI 5.8-58.2, P<0.001) among closed environmental work contacts compared to open environmental work contacts. One index and one secondary case died. CONCLUSIONS: The low secondary transmission rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection among open environmental contacts emphasizes the fact that free air flow has the ability to dilute or probably blow away the virus particles and lowers the transmission risk substantially.

Deposition features of inhaled viral droplets may lead to rapid secondary transmission of COVID-19.

Inhaled viral droplets may immediately be expelled and cause an escalating re-transmission. Differences in the deposition location of inhaled viral droplets may have a direct impact on the probability of virus expelling. This study develops a numerical model to estimate the region-specific deposition fractions for inhalable droplets (1-50 µ m) in respiratory airways. The results identified a higher deposition fraction in the upper airways than the lower airways. Particularly for droplets larger than 10 µ m, the relatively high deposition fraction in the oral/laryngeal combined region warns of its easy transmission through casual talking/coughing. Moreover, considering droplet sizes' effect on virus loading capacity, we built a correlation model to quantify the potential of virus expelling hazards, which suggests an amplified cascade effect on virus transmission on top of the existing transmission mechanism. It therefore highlights the importance of considering the instant expelling possibilities from inhaled droplets, and also implies potentials in restricting a rapid secondary transmission by measures that can lower down droplet deposition in the upper airways.

Prolonged presence of viral nucleic acid in clinically recovered COVID-19 patients was not associated with effective infectiousness.

Prolonged presence of viral nucleic acid was reported in certain patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), with unclear clinical and epidemiological significance. We here described the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of 37 recovered COVID-19 patients with prolonged presence of viral RNA in Wuhan, China. For those who had been discharged and re-admitted, their close contacts outside the hospital were traced and evaluated. The median age of the 37 patients was 62 years (IQR 50, 68), and 24 (64.9%) were men. They had common or severe COVID-19. With prolonged positive RT-PCR, most patients were clinically stable, 29 (78.4%) denied any symptoms. A total of 431 PCR tests were carried out, with each patient at a median of 8 time points. The median time of PCR positivity to April 18 was 78 days (IQR 67.7, 84.5), and the longest 120 days. 22 of 37 patients had been discharged at a median of 44 days (IQR 22.3, 50) from disease onset, and 9 had lived with their families without personal protections for a total of 258 person-days and no secondary infection was identified through epidemiological investigation, nucleic acid and antibody screening. Infectiousness in COVID-19 patients with prolonged presence of viral nucleic acid should not solely be evaluated by RT-PCR. Those patients who have clinically recovered and whose disease course has exceeded four weeks were associated with very limited infectiousness. Reconsideration of disease control in such patients is needed.

Potential secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 via wastewater.

The new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, has spread internationally and whilst the current focus of those dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic is understandably restricting its direct transmission, the potential for secondary transmission via wastewater should not be underestimated. The virus has been identified in human fecal and wastewater samples from different countries and potential cases of transmission via wastewater have been reported. Our recommendations for hospital wastewater treatment, municipal wastewater plants, sewage sludge, water reuse and aquatic environments are designed to reduce the risk of such transmission, and contribute to limiting the resurgence of COVID-19 as current restrictions are relaxed. A particular urgent recommendation focusses on supporting low-income countries in tackling the potential for secondary transmission via wastewater.

Evaluation of the Secondary Transmission Pattern and Epidemic Prediction of COVID-19 in the Four Metropolitan Areas of China.

Understanding the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 is crucial for evaluating its spread pattern, especially in metropolitan areas of China, as its spread could lead to secondary outbreaks. In addition, the experiences gained and lessons learned from China have the potential to provide evidence to support other metropolitan areas and large cities outside China with their emerging cases. We used data reported from January 24, 2020, to February 23, 2020, to fit a model of infection, estimate the likely number of infections in four high-risk metropolitan areas based on the number of cases reported, and increase the understanding of the COVID-19 spread pattern. Considering the effect of the official quarantine regulations and travel restrictions for China, which began January 23~24, 2020, we used the daily travel intensity index from the Baidu Maps app to roughly simulate the level of restrictions and estimate the proportion of the quarantined population. A group of SEIR model statistical parameters were estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods and fitting on the basis of reported data. As a result, we estimated that the basic reproductive number, R 0, was 2.91 in Beijing, 2.78 in Shanghai, 2.02 in Guangzhou, and 1.75 in Shenzhen based on the data from January 24, 2020, to February 23, 2020. In addition, we inferred the prediction results and compared the results of different levels of parameters. For example, in Beijing, the predicted peak number of cases was 467 with a peak time of March 01, 2020; however, if the city were to implement different levels (strict, moderate, or weak) of travel restrictions or regulation measures, the estimation results showed that the transmission dynamics would change and that the peak number of cases would differ by between 54% and 209%. We concluded that public health interventions would reduce the risk of the spread of COVID-19 and that more rigorous control and prevention measures would effectively contain its further spread, and awareness of prevention should be enhanced when businesses and social activities return to normal before the end of the epidemic. Further, the experiences gained and lessons learned from China offer the potential to provide evidence supporting other metropolitan areas and big cities with their emerging cases outside China.

Secondary Transmission of Coronavirus Disease from Presymptomatic Persons, China.

We explored the secondary attack rate in different types of contact with persons presymptomatic for coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Close contacts who lived with or had frequent contact with an index case-patient had a higher risk for COVID-19. Our findings provide population-based evidence for transmission from persons with presymptomatic COVID-19 infections.